“A failure below $60K could trigger something of a panic sell-off. The positive scenario, in our opinion, will become the main one with a rise above $65K, fixing the price at the 50-day moving average and the reversal area in early May.”

 “There are uncertainties about whether current Fed policy is sufficiently restrictive and noted important upside risks to inflation.”

 “Many speculators who were betting on continuing strong ETF flows are now being washed out of the market... But he added that the bull market isn’t over and that Bitcoin will scale new highs by the end of 2024.”

 “Bitcoin (BTC) had bottomed out, but the expected move higher is likely to be slow.”

 “The risk of U.S. fiscal dominance with the monetization of government debt by the Federal Reserve is growing, and such a scenario should be supportive for cryptocurrencies as investors seek out alternative assets... In a scenario of U.S. fiscal dominance, we think bitcoin (BTC) would provide a good hedge against de-dollarization and declining confidence in the U.S. Treasury market.”

 “U.S. fiscal dominance would likely have three effects on the U.S Treasury curve: 'a steeper nominal 2 year/10 year curve, a greater increase in breakevens than real yields, and an increase in term premium'... the bitcoin price has a positive correlation with all three of these potential developments.”

 “In addition to the passive boost to BTC from de-dollarization, we would expect a second Trump administration to be actively supportive of BTC (and digital assets more broadly) via looser regulation and the approval of U.S. spot ETFs.”