“The key risk is a hotter CPI print... But upcoming macro data creates a two-tailed risk — with one tied to stronger-than-expected growth fueling inflation concerns and the other being weaker growth fueling either recession or ‘stagflation’ concerns.”

 “US stocks and bonds are facing upside risk this week as traders keep building long positions... Commodity trading advisors’ equity and fixed-income demand is notable, with a so-called green sweep showing up in most of Goldman’s models.”

 “Squeeze risks for rate-sensitive laggards on a CPI miss outweigh downside risks on a CPI beat... With further hikes ruled out, we think equities may be able to tolerate higher inflation. An in-line print should also be net positive, removing the inflation overhang at least in the near term.”

 “Stalled-out progress on inflation is probably going to trigger a decline in US equities in the coming months... The S&P 500 will likely drop roughly 10% in the second or third quarter to around 4,750.”

 “A 'merely in-line' US inflation report this week would likely be enough for further risk-asset gains.”