Chinese Steel Exports Remain High Amid Trade Tensions and Domestic Challenges

Key Takeaway

• Chinese steel exports remained high at 9.22 million tons in April, amid trade tensions and domestic market challenges.
• Shifts in metal and energy imports/exports reflect China's adjusting trade dynamics, with aluminum exports up and crude oil imports down.
• Regulatory moves aim to manage overcapacity, as international relations strain over technology exports and global economic roles.

Steel Exports Surge

Chinese steel exports have maintained a level above 9 million tons in April, continuing a trend that has raised concerns about overcapacity in the industry. The total shipments of steel reached 9.22 million tons last month, contributing to a total of 35 million tons in the first four months of the year, marking the highest volume for this period since 2016. This surge in exports comes amid a backdrop of trade tensions, with countries like the United States and members of the European Union raising alarms over China's production capabilities. The ongoing crisis in China's property market, which has dampened domestic consumption, is partly to blame for the push towards overseas markets.

Metals and Energy Products Shift

In the realm of other metals, China's aluminum exports have hit a three-month high, whereas copper imports saw a decline from the previous month due to a spike in international prices. The reluctance of fabricators to pay higher prices amid weak domestic demand has led to a zero premium on imports for the first time in seven years. Similarly, in the energy sector, coal purchases have surged to the highest level this year as power plants seek better-quality fuel. Conversely, crude oil imports have decreased as refineries enter a seasonal maintenance period after a phase of brisk buying.

Agricultural Imports and Exports

The agricultural sector has seen a mix of trends, with soybean cargoes reaching their highest level this year, indicating a strong demand for this commodity. However, imports of edible oils have declined, affected by higher overseas prices and a sluggish economy that continues to impact demand. These shifts in agricultural goods imports and exports reflect the broader challenges and adjustments in China's trade dynamics.

Regulatory Moves and International Relations

China has introduced draft rules aimed at slowing the expansion of its battery industry, addressing concerns over overcapacity. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's proposal suggests minimum standards for energy density among other specifications, signaling a move towards quality over quantity. This comes as President Xi Jinping seeks to reassure European partners about China's role in the global economy amidst trade tensions. Additionally, the U.S. has tightened its grip on technology exports to Huawei, revoking certain licenses for chip exports in a bid to curb China's technological rise. This decision underscores the ongoing strategic competition between the U.S. and China, particularly in the technology sector.

Street Views

• Tomas Gutierrez, Kallanish Commodities Ltd (Neutral on Chinese steel exports):

  "A crackdown on the tax evasion that has helped fuel overseas sales could see steel exports decline in the next couple of months. But unless China cuts production, the total this year could still rise above 100 million tons."